Northern Arizona
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
71  Melanie Townsend SO 19:56
271  Kayla Freeman JR 20:33
456  Lauren Justus JR 20:53
515  Heather LaPlante SO 20:57
574  Shayla Freeman JR 21:03
596  Kylee Kieser SR 21:04
601  Kylie Goo FR 21:05
869  Jamie Shrader SR 21:24
1,248  Caroline Hogardh JR 21:49
1,359  Sarah Baker SR 21:56
National Rank #50 of 341
Mountain Region Rank #5 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 3.1%
Most Likely Finish 5th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.3%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 65.8%
Top 10 in Regional 99.9%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Melanie Townsend Kayla Freeman Lauren Justus Heather LaPlante Shayla Freeman Kylee Kieser Kylie Goo Jamie Shrader Caroline Hogardh Sarah Baker
Washington Invitational 10/04 883 19:47 20:49 20:55 21:05 21:04 20:59 21:17 21:24 21:19 21:55
ISU Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/18 817 19:52 20:29 20:50 20:59 20:50 21:24 21:06
Big Sky Conference Championships 11/01 910 20:24 20:27 21:00 20:54 21:01 21:05 20:58 22:21
Mountain Region Championships 11/14 820 19:59 20:32 20:46 20:53 21:21 20:50 21:02
NCAA Championship 11/22 19:51





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 3.1% 26.2 613 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3
Region Championship 100% 5.1 176 0.1 9.0 27.7 29.0 19.1 9.6 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Melanie Townsend 91.4% 72.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5
Kayla Freeman 9.4% 151.2
Lauren Justus 3.1% 188.5
Heather LaPlante 3.1% 200.5
Shayla Freeman 3.1% 210.5
Kylee Kieser 3.1% 215.0
Kylie Goo 3.1% 212.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Melanie Townsend 6.5 3.3 5.0 6.6 8.5 10.8 10.8 10.0 8.6 6.8 5.9 5.0 3.7 3.4 2.6 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Kayla Freeman 26.9 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 4.0 4.3 4.2
Lauren Justus 45.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8
Heather LaPlante 49.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6
Shayla Freeman 54.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Kylee Kieser 55.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Kylie Goo 56.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 2
3 9.0% 32.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.0 6.0 3.0 3
4 27.7% 27.7 4
5 29.0% 0.1% 0.0 29.0 0.0 5
6 19.1% 19.1 6
7 9.6% 9.6 7
8 3.7% 3.7 8
9 1.4% 1.4 9
10 0.3% 0.3 10
11 0.1% 0.1 11
12 0.0% 0.0 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 3.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.0 96.9 0.1 3.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Tulsa 7.4% 1.0 0.1
Bradley 4.7% 1.0 0.0
Yale 2.9% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 2.0% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Rice 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Kansas State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Utah 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Butler 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Weber State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Furman 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Elon 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Connecticut 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.2
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 3.0